All articles by Caroline Hay – Page 2
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: inflation battle in full swing
As we reach the midpoint of the year, there is little sign that the second half of 2022 will be any less turbulent than the first. The conflict in Ukraine slogs on – a destructive war of attrition, pain and fear. The repercussions are huge, global and unpredictable, be they surging energy prices or impending, but acute, shortages of basic foodstuffs, or of semi-conductors, so vital to 21st century life.
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FeaturesYen’s swift dive surprises market
For several decades, the Japanese yen has not been in the limelight too often. However, earlier this year it became headline news as the currency began to depreciate rapidly against the US dollar. Although investors were not overly surprised that the yen would weaken, the speed of its decline was certainly startling. Over the course of about 15 months, between the start of 2021 to early April 2022, the yen has lost about 25% of its value against the dollar, with nearly half the move occurring in that final month.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: disappearing safe havens
Risk markets have been having a torrid time of late. ‘Risk-free’ government bond markets are not providing any safe havens in these storms, with curves steepening and considerable volatility in longer rates.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Markets grapple with inflation and slowdown
The global outlook for economic growth is deteriorating, with repeatedly revised economic forecasts pointing to ever-higher inflation and lower GDP growth. The far-reaching impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, moving principally through energy and commodity channels, have exacerbated so many of the world’s existing pandemic-related supply-side bottlenecks, which had been gradually easing in the weeks and months before Russia invaded.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currencies: War and inflation dominate
While we watch horrible scenes of towns and cities under bombardment, their bewildered and bloodied citizens desperately searching for safety, the huge shockwaves generated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine are spreading rapidly far beyond both countries’ borders.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Inflation spotlight on central banks
Not often far from the action, central banks have been centre stage in 2022 as one after another in the developed markets reveal their hawkish intents. The speed and synchronicity with which they have shifted has been pretty remarkable, with only the Bank of Japan not yet joining other main central banks.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: COVID starts to lose grip on GDP
COVID’s huge influence on all our lives, whether through disruption of global supply chains or threats of lockdowns in the face of soaring infection rates, was reasonably constant throughout 2021. However, it now appears that GDP numbers have become generally less sensitive to COVID infection rates than they were, say, 18 months ago, with high vaccination rates (certainly across developed markets), and an awareness from politicians that the public’s willingness to comply with lockdowns may be waning fast.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Economies at a sensitive juncture
Another new year and we are still in a COVID pandemic, as we were a year ago, although this time with economic grow-th looking pretty robust across the world. But, despite the best efforts of healthcare workers, scientists and politicians, the virus continues to exert an unnervingly strong influence on all our lives.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Policy normalisation kicks in
Although several emerging market (EM) central banks have been hiking rates for a few months already this year, particularly in Latin America, it was only in the third quarter of 2021 that the global share of central banks raising official rates moved above 50%. This is the first time in three years that this has been the case, as several developed market central banks joined emerging market counterparts to tighten rates.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Simmering tensions bubble up
After a reasonably peaceful summer – relative to the many previous volatile ones for capital markets, that is – simmering tensions are bubbling over, affecting many financial asset classes.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Not quite back to normal
As the world struggles to get back to pre-pandemic conditions, with schools and offices open, economic forecasting seems even less predictable than ever. Take August’s US payrolls report, which again confounded most forecasters. Analysts scrambled to explain why the headline job gains were so weak, particularly after the huge (forecast-beating) gains the previous month.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Market signals cloud the picture
From preliminary data, Europe’s second-quarter growth appears to have been surprisingly strong, seemingly led by services, such as strong retail sales. Supply-side problems are still constraining the goods sector generally, hitting the German economy especially, with industrial production falling more than one percentage point over the second quarter.
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FeaturesFixed Income, Rates, Currencies: Trickier than usual
Amongst the myriad of investment conundrums facing investors, one of the more pressing today is whether – or not – the US economy will overheat. Though the Federal Reserve has done a good job assuring the markets that while (US) inflation data may indeed print higher than “target”, Chair Jerome Powell will be “looking through” any rises. They have argued that these should be temporary and a dovish outlook will remain.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Still missing the target
Most would agree that one data release from an important but volatile dataset – employment figures – should be read with caveats. However, the scale of the forecasting ‘miss’ for April’s US job numbers was hard to dismiss as just noise.
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FeaturesFixed Income, Rates, Currencies: A false start
While we may be approaching that ‘exit from pandemic’ moment, the exceptional monetary and fiscal responses from policymakers ensure COVID-19’s economic legacy will be felt globally for years to come.
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FeaturesFixed Income, Rates, Currencies: Rising yields signal reflation
The Federal Reserve has not hinted at its future plans to unwind quantitative easing (QE). However, markets are looking to 2013’s ‘taper tantrum’ for an explanation of the dramatic US-led bond market sell-offs.
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Special ReportUK green Gilts: UK joins the green party
A late-comer to green bond issuance, the UK plans to issue its first green Gilt this year
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FeaturesFixed Income, Rates, Currencies: Priming the pump
Although COVID-19 infection rates are falling across many regions, the ‘success’ is more a reflection of lockdown restrictions keeping opportunities for virus spread low.
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FeaturesFixed Income, Rates, Currencies: Same again in 2021?
The relief from the farewells to 2020, and welcoming a Brexit trade deal, has waned in the face of rising COVID-19 infection rates. There have also been further lockdowns across swathes of Northern Europe as well as in Japan, Thailand, and South Africa to name a few. The vaccine-generated light at the end of the tunnel which appeared last year, seems rather distant, and possibly dimmer too.
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FeaturesFixed Income, Rates, Currencies: A very different recovery
Amongst the remarkable happenings in 2020, from startling news of a pandemic to viable vaccine and beyond, has been the speed and scale of interventions from central banks and governments.
