All articles by Caroline Hay – Page 3

  • A bumpy ride
    Features

    Fixed Income, Rates, Currencies: Vaccine boosts bullish markets

    December 2020 (Magazine)

    The swings in outcome predictions as the vote counting began in the US election were large. From the realisation that there was no blue wave of Democrat success, to a possible re-election for Donald Trump, to a Joe Biden win but with a Republican Senate, it was tricky to comprehend the investment implications. 

  • Copper bucks the trend
    Features

    Fixed Income, Rates, Currencies: Economy reaches tipping point

    November 2020 (Magazine)

    The global reflation trade, and with it the outlook for further dollar weakness, seems paused as speculation on the outcome of the imminent US presidential election diverts attention and has many retreating to neutral positions. 

  • A divergence occurs in US inflation expectations
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Reality gap widens

    October (2020) Magazine

    August 2020 saw the US Treasury market post one of its worst monthly performances since November 2016, while global equities, led by the US, reached new highs. 

  • US banks tighten their credit lines
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Still facing anxious times

    September 2020 (Magazine)

    Developed market government bond yields have spent the summer drifting lower as risk assets traded better. However, this benign climate has not lifted the fog of confusion caused by COVID-19.

  • Unemployment - same shock, different reactions
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Dismay sets in

    July/August 2020 (Magazine)

    As lockdowns ease, particularly in the northern hemisphere and the Antipodes, economic recoveries get underway. Given the exceptional circumstances, economic forecasts and predictions may show little consensus, or potentially be wrong, the puzzling US payroll announcements for May being a vivid example.

  • COVID-19 has decimated the US labour market
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Unprecedented times

    June 2020 (Magazine)

    According to a Wall Street Journal blog, the word “unprecedented” was used in 395 of the publication’s articles in the past three months. Also popular were massive, enormous, staggering and eye-popping

  • 10-year Treasury term premia
    Analysis

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Thinking on one’s feet

    May 2020 (Magazine)

    The enormous scale of national lockdowns has made it hard to keep abreast of all the extraordinary monetary interventions and fiscal support packages worldwide.

  • Federal Reserve balance sheet
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Global economy under pressure

    April 2020 (Magazine)

    At the end of February, after a week that saw stock markets around the world plummet, US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell sought to calm fears, saying that the Fed would “act as appropriate” to support growth. 

  • Signs of renewed vigour
    Analysis

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: China’s woe hits rest of world

    March 2020 (Magazine)

    While the speed and breadth of the spread of infection was unknown, it was apparent that the outbreak of the new coronavirus, named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO), would cause considerable disruption to economic activity in China.  

  • Imports of goods
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: A confident start to the year

    February 2020 (Magazine)

    Undoubtedly a good year for financial assets, 2019 ended on a bright note with the broad, and relieved, consensus that the China/US trade conflict might be de-escalating

  • Still undervalued
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Better than expected

    January 2020 (Magazine)

    Although packed with geopolitical surprises 2019 turned out to be better than expected for financial assets. Equities and bonds rallied together reversing last year’s ‘unusual occurrence’ of both performing badly.

  • a broken correlation
    Features

    Asset Allocation: Good news buoys risk markets

    December 2019 (Magazine)

    Several factors have given risk markets a boost and propelled risk-free rates higher. These include diminishing fears of an economic slowdown, a potential rapprochement in trade negotiations and a reduced risk of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.

  • refinitiv ipsos primary consumer sentiment index
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Clouded by uncertainty

    November 2019 (Magazine)

    It was predictable that risk markets should have reacted positively to the news of an agreement in principle in the US-China trade negotiations. Although assuredly better than a seemingly relentless stream of bad will between the protagonists, the provisional agreement is in no way a solution to the conflict. Another round of trade talks could be necessary just to reach a tentative accord. Investors would be wise to temper enthusiasm to extrapolate the ‘good news’ too far.

  • change in us real personal consumption expenditure
    Features

    Everything is still possible

    October 2019 (Magazine)

    Markets are on edge as a result of difficult economic and geopolitical forces. Risks are still skewed to the downside. Trade tensions have not abated, rather there is a possibility of further escalation in the future, which looks like reducing investment, and damaging already apprehensive outlooks.

  • spread of 10 year us treasury yields over 2 year yields
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: A bleak outcome

    September 2019 (Magazine)

    This year’s summer tensions in shallow markets have again been apparent. The fallout from the trade dispute between China and the US is having a global impact. Together with economic weakness almost everywhere, a global policy easing cycle could be imminent.

  • is us economic growth losing momentum
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Nervousness abounds

    July/August 2019 (magazine)

    The weak US non-farm payroll (NFP) data for May, far below forecasts, sent rates falling and stocks rising, on the supposition that it raised the likelihood of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, while risk markets cheered the prospect of easier money, the hardline approach taken by the US towards China, and China’s uncompromising responses are raising investor nervousness.

  • screen shot 2019 05 30 at 13.15.12
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Politics remains the bellwether

    June 2019 (Magazine)

    Financial markets continue to be influenced by news, and tweets, about the US-China trade negotiations. While stock markets have sold off during the second quarter of 2019, and credit spreads have widened, this financial tightening is so far less than what happened over the last few months of 2018. 

  • screen shot 2019 04 30 at 16.48.15
    Features

    Fixed Income: Markets take nervous turn

    May 2019 (Magazine)

    Almost every asset class did well in the first quarter of 2019

  • japanese business conditions indices
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Markets take nervous turn

    April 2019 (Magazine)

    The reaction and aftermath to the US Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot appears to be more focused on the monetary policy news itself and the ‘fuel’ of easy money.

  • italian manufacturing pmi
    Features

    Fixed income, rates, currencies: Global economic discomfort

    March 2019 (Magazine)

    Fed’s wait-and-see approach to monetary policy adds to contradictary signals