All articles by Caroline Hay – Page 4
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Clouds to darken further
Markets have pulled back from US rate hike forecasts; Euro credit looks set to be most vulnerable to quantative tightening; The European elections in May look set to see a surge in support for populist parties
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FeaturesFixed income, rates, currencies: Hope but also fears for 2019
US domestic investors hold healthy stock market profits after a decade-long bull run Geopolitics on many fronts point to tumultuous times ahead
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Fixed income, rates, currencies: Challenges still lie ahead
While the US mid-term elections saw the Democrats regain the House of Representatives, trade policy remains in the hands of the White House. Trade tensions, between the US and China in particular, will remain to the fore. President Trump’s aggressive trade policy is already having a global impact with declining purchasing manager indices indicating corporate hesitation in future plans.
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Fixed income, rates, currencies: A hawkish Fed spooks all
Not many predicted the equity sell-off at the start of the fourth quarter, and there is still puzzlement as to what triggered it
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Fixed income, Rates, Currencies: America leads the way
Emerging markets have endured a difficult summer. Market sensitivities were heightened by fears of a trade war and the reality that the US Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. The flashpoints in Argentina and Turkey have focused attention on the EM universe, particularly the more vulnerable economies with less healthy fundamentals.
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Asset Allocation: The summer doldrums
Summer doldrums have a tendency to mark their arrival with volatility. This year trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, and fears of escalation are flustering shallow, and less liquid, financial markets
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Asset Allocation: Nessun dorma
There have been many times when Italy’s volatile politics have entertained the world. And occasions when that volatility has spilled into financial markets
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Asset Allocation: Testing economic normality
Although the world economy is moving towards normalisation, after the global financial crisis, it is still testing, and sometimes breaching, so-called normal bounds
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Asset Allocation: Uncertainties on the rise
While rates markets remain focused on inflation and growth data, risk appetites appear more affected by the international politics of trade, led by the US
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Fixed income, rates, currencies: Trump fails to rattle markets
Geopolitics is certainly adding to the mix for increasing volatilities across markets, with trade news being at the top of minds
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Asset Allocation: What’s changed?
While there was general acknowledgement that this year would indeed bring more volatility to financial markets, the sharpness of February’s stock market moves was still surprising
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Asset allocation: A still unusual business cycle
There is consensus that last year’s global growth trade will continue into 2018. However, with today’s high valuations, risk assets might reward less than in 2017
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FeaturesAsset Allocation: A benign outlook for 2018
The synchronised global pick-up in growth and trade looks like it could have the strength to carry on without central bank liquidity infusions
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Fixed income, rates, currencies: Bullish trend surprises markets
Few predicted that so soon after the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency, the stock market would get back into its (post-financial crisis) bullish trend
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Asset Allocation: Economics remains buoyant
Global macroeconomics are generally supportive all round – with buoyant business sentiment, rising investment spending and low unemployment
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Asset Allocation: Economic growth holds steady
After a quieter summer for capital markets than in previous years, relieved risk assets remain popular. Economic growth has maintained a healthy pace with inflation yet to seriously surprise to the upside
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Asset Allocation: Risks abound despite European recovery
Despite yet another weak and rather confusing US jobs report, there was no rush to alter Federal Reserve rate hike forecasts for the remainder of this year.
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Asset allocation: Cautious optimism on Europe
Focus on central banks as they edge towards rate rises; June Fed hike is priced in
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Asset Allocation: The big picture
With the eight anniversary of the risk asset rally passing in March, many have taken the opportunity to compare the longevity of this bull run to previous ones
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Asset Allocation: The big picture
So the world economy continues to expand, albeit at quite a modest pace. Many observers remain cautious that this upswing will go the way of all the other post-financial crisis recoveries and run out of steam, perhaps soon. But the synchronisation of these reflationary signs across the world gives others hope that the current growth upturn will be sustained.
