All articles by Caroline Hay – Page 6
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
As the US economy continues to recover, the hour when the Fed starts to tighten is approaching
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Features
Asset Allocation: Fixed income, Rates, Currencies - The big picture
Getting the big picture right always helps and sometimes it makes subsequent investment decision-making blindingly obvious. But so often there seem to be diametrically opposed eventualities, with ambiguity everywhere. The dramatic fall in the oil price, for example, is creating plenty of puzzlement.
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Features
Asset Allocation - Fixed Income, Rates, Currencies: The big picture
The new year will surely see the US Federal Reserve finally raise target rates. When it does, it will be for the first time in six years – which is nearly a record
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Features
Briefing, Investment: Breakevens breakout
Some key indicators of markets’ inflation expectations have broken sharply downwards during 2014. Caroline Saunders asks, should we – and central bankers – be worried?
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Features
Asset Allocation Fixed Income, Rates, Currencies: The big picture
When the Fed embarked upon its first round of quantitative easing five years ago, there were fears of an inflation time bomb. The Fed has already purchased its last lot of Treasuries under QE3, but is still executing regular MBS purchases, as forward inflation expectations in the US and Europe are as low as they have been for years.
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Special Report
Special Report - Emerging Markets: Fed up with volatility
The Federal Reserve-sparked ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013 revealed how sensitive emerging market currencies could be to interest rates set in the developed world. Caroline Saunders asks whether that volatility told us more about investor sentiment than fiscal fundamentals
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Features
Asset Allocation: The big picture
There is an uncomfortable sense that many market outlooks and forecasts are too sanguine about future risks and the course of US interest rates. Some asset classes are already being severely buffeted.
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Special Report
Special Report - Emerging Markets: Corporates come of age
A structural advantage is baked into emerging market corporate debt, but exploiting it is dangerous without intense credit work. Caroline Saunders finds a market coming out of childhood but not yet an adult
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Features
The big picture
ECB president Draghi is certainly making a name for himself with his market-jolting, memorable speeches. In 2012, his strident call that the euro would be saved “whatever it takes” marked, or arguably triggered, Europe’s move out of its crisis. In August, Draghi made a speech in Jackson Hole that surprised many with the nature some of its statements, in particular his opining on Europe’s fiscal policy.
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Features
The big picture
The ECB’s actions and words after its June meeting were met with approval throughout the world’s capital markets. As much of what was announced was already priced in, there was a fairly muted response, which wasn’t sufficient to weaken the euro too much.
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Features
The big picture
The dovishness of the developed markets (DM) central banks continues to be one of the main themes for capital markets.
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Country Report
The Netherlands: State-guaranteed securitisation
The Dutch government would like the country’s pension funds to support the housing market by investing in mortgage bonds. But details remain sketchy, as Caroline Saunders reports
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Features
Distressed still not de-stressed
As in equity markets, Caroline Hay finds that the big bounce in distressed debt and leveraged loans since the lows of last winter raises as many questions as answers
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FeaturesThe big picture
It would be silly to predict the bottom of a deep recession on the basis of a single month’s volatile manufacturing PMI data
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Features
Hard times hit real economy
Yield curve/duration The world’s central banks have been cutting official rates worldwide. Special mention goes to the Bank of England (BoE) with an eye popping 150bps cut. This drastic move is seen by many as a clear acknowledgement that it has been slow to react and insufficiently proactive. Now there ...
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Features
Down to nothing
US President Obama has assumed control of a US economy beset by severe economic woes. With companies going bust, factories closing, businesses retrenching, jobs being lost at an unprecedented rate, consumer spending dropping like a stone, house prices tumbling, and homes repossessed, Obama’s task is both monumental and unenviable. Such ...
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FeaturesWill central banks carry on cutting?
ZIRP, ‘zero interest rate policy’, first became a familiar acronym in February 1999 when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) finally cut official rates to zero. Japan was enduring a financial crisis of epic proportions, and the economy was suffering agonies as property values kept declining, the stock market plunged, prices ...
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Features
Looking ahead to recession
Yield curve/duration The US economy slid into recession in December 2007, says the National Bureau of Economic Research. As we start 2009 the extreme pain being felt in both the jobs and the housing markets is not easing; figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association suggest that in Q3 2008 one ...
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Features
Unsettling times
Yield curve/duration At the very heart of the financial system, money markets remain almost paralysed and it is here that the recovery must start. Neither the global financial market nor the real economy can function without them. Without access to short-term funding, the banks are forced to sell assets as ...
