Pension fund assets in central and eastern Europe (CEE) are set to grow five-fold to some €245bn in the next decade, with even more spectacular growth in countries such as Slovakia, Bulgaria and the Baltic states, according to a regional report by Allianz Global Investors.

However, despite the predicted advances, the report notes that all CEE governments face a severe demographic problem regarding state pensions, and gives a thinly veiled warning that regulation is hampering asset managers in their task to maximise returns in some countries, including Poland, the regional leader.

At the same time, given growing financial awareness among populations, sustainable economic growth and the increasing availability of sophisticated financial products, Allianz believes what has been a highly conservative bias in household investment patterns will change to make the CEE region "a very promising market for asset management and insurance companies".

Presenting the report to the press in Budapest in July, Brigitte Miksa, head of international pensions at Allianz Global Investors, noted that eight out of the 11 countries covered by the report had introduced mandatory second pillars in the past decade - the exceptions being Lithuania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic.

"Following these reforms, eastern Europe is ahead of many western European countries in terms of structural preparation. We see annual growth in the region of 19%, meaning the total pension assets under management will grow from €51bn at end 2006 to €245bn by 2015."

Some countries, notably the Baltics and Romania, should see growth of over 40%, although the bulk of assets will continue to be in today's front runners, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, Miksa said.

Currently, the three countries account for 87% of pension assets in the CEE region - Poland alone, with €30.6bn, represents 60% - even though the three account for only 55% of the region's population.

Despite the predicted surge in assets across the region's other eight countries, these three will still have almost €200bn, or 81% of total pension assets under management, in 2015.

In volume terms, Allianz expects both Slovakia and Croatia to boast pension assets of some €10bn, assuming growth at 29% and 19% respectively, by the same date, while star performers Latvia and Lithuania, with cumulative annual growth at an astonishing 43%, will have assets of €5.8bn and €4.8bn respectively. Romania, which is set to implement reforms next year, is also to show annual growth above 40%, and while a late start means assets in 2015 will barely be scraping the €3bn level, its relatively large population of 22 million marks it as an important country for the future, despite significantly negative demographic trends.

Perhaps surprisingly given its general leading position in many aspects of the transition process, Slovenia has been somewhat laggardly in terms of pension reform.

The government, shying away from a mandatory second pillar in 2000, chose instead a voluntary supplementary scheme. Nonetheless, given its relatively high GDP per capita of €14,843, pension asset growth is expected to top 20%, although this will leave Ljubljana fund managers with just €4.2bn to allocate - albeit for a population of just two million.

Allianz also notes in its report that savings rates are low, even in comparison to the low salaries typical in the region. Slovenia, easily the region's richest country with financial assets at €13,140 per head, comes up to just one quarter of the EU average, for example.

This lack of cash hinders growth in voluntary pension funds, particularly in countries like Poland which do not offer tax incentives to foster such funds. "Investment in financial assets competes strongly with housing and consumption across the region," Miksa said, noting that what household savings there are tend to end up in bank accounts. In Slovakia, for example, 67% of household savings is in cash or the bank.

However, as economies and awareness of personal financial investment grows, so too will the potential for new avenues of investment, she says.

Tamas Cser, portfolio manager for Concorde Asset Managment in Budapest and responsible for assets of some $1bn, agrees that growth is likely to be sprightly.

"Many of the countries are still in the early years of pension reform, and since only relatively young people joined the mandatory schemes - the older people staying with the state PAYG systems - no redemptions are expected in the early years. So I would agree growth is likely to be fast," Cser said.

And while unsure about the expected growth in Hungary, he said legislation stipulating a three choice portfolio (conservative, balanced and aggressive) would mean an increase in the proportion of equity investment in Hungarian funds from next January.