Currency – Page 2
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Uncertainty persists
As the major central banks in developed markets reach, or at least near, the end of their hiking cycles, markets, rather than identifying when policy rates will peak, focus is now on the conundrum of just how long these policy peaks will be maintained.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: US debt crisis averted – what next?
The US debt ceiling crisis was resolved in June, avoiding potentially major fireworks, with a suspension of the limit until early 2025. This ensures that the next time the politicians have to fight about it will be after the November 2024 presidential election. Although markets were relieved at the temporary resolution, the process of rebuilding the very depleted Treasury cash balances – with some huge bill auctions planned – will drain significant liquidity from the system, which could put pressure on the rates market.
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FeaturesFX in waiting mode after lively 2022
After a long period of muted volatility, currency markets sprang back into action in 2022 as geopolitical risk and diverging monetary policy came to the fore. This year it is quieter, but markets remain rattled over the unpredictable interest rate scenarios. As a result, many market participants are waiting for a sharper picture to emerge.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Strong labour markets surprise
Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, which measures the state of the US economy, has been mostly strong, although manufacturing indices have been considerably weaker than services, perhaps reflecting their greater sensitivity to higher interest rates.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Chill winds prompt caution
Although 2022 was a remarkably bad year for bonds and equities, any hopes that 2023 might illuminate a brighter path have already been dispelled as rapidly changing narratives – from recession to boom to fears of a banking crisis – all tossed and turned stock and rates markets. The result was a remarkably turbulent first quarter.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Optimism fades on mixed data
January’s market optimism has been subsiding, as forecasts for inflation and US Federal Reserve policy shift the outlook further to the hawkish side. However, the macro picture is not clear. Markets hang on to every new piece of data to clarify the outlook, be it non-farm payrolls, the consumer price index (CPI) or the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
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FeaturesFrom soft landing to no landing
Once again, the US jobs market has shown its capacity to surprise forecasters, if not astonish them. January’s non-farm payroll numbers came in way above consensus forecasts, swiftly reversing markets’ dovish take on that week’s central bank actions, with bond markets handing back much of their earlier gains.
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FeaturesCentral banks and the weaponisation of finance
The US has been a global power since the second world war. But it was during the interval between the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the rise of China in the 21st century that the US was perhaps the single global hegemon.
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FeaturesAhead of the curve: The missing elements in the digital currencies debate
The recent contraction of the cryptocurrency markets poses questions about the viability of digital currency as an asset class for institutional investors. However, these developments have not undermined the efforts of central banks to pursue their own digital currency initiatives.
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FeaturesIs the US heading for a soft landing?
Rare though they are in history, a soft landing for the US economy seems to be the consensus forecast, a view aided by news of a sharp contraction in the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers index in December. The jobs market also looks like it is slowing down and there are signs of a cooling off in wages, with lower-than-expected average hourly earnings reported in December’s non-farm payroll report.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Inflation strengthens its grip
Whereas news of the hostilities in Ukraine may be losing their potential to shock and dislocate the world economic order, inflation news has maintained its powerful hold over financial markets across the world throughout 2022, with many economies recording their highest inflation levels for decades.
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FeaturesUS dollar strength and the issues facing institutional investors
Most central banks across the world are raising interest rates – some more aggressively than others – but it is proving hard for any of them to out-hike the US Federal Reserve. The resulting widening interest rate differentials have been an important factor in the appreciation of the US currency.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Recessions - but when?
With the fourth consecutive 75bps hike in rates delivered in November, US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested that the pace of the hikes might be slowed in the coming months (so slightly dovish), but then said that the terminal rate and how long it would be held was more important than the speed of tightening (back to hawkish). The initial dollar sell-off was unwound by the end of the press conference.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: The return of extreme volatility
The emergency measures swiftly enacted by policymakers and central banks in March 2020, as we locked our communities, schools and businesses down, unsurprisingly created huge volatility in financial markets.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Central banks act tough
This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual high-level event sponsored by the Reserve Bank of Kansas, yielded relatively little policy news. But the fighting talk from the US Federal Reserve and others was striking. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech was markedly more hawkish than expected, while Isabel Schnabel, board member of the European Central Bank, referred to the need for central banks to act ‘forcefully’ because “both the likelihood and the cost of current high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high”.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: defying historical norms
Another US jobs report comes in significantly above consensus. Its across-the-board strength, upward revisions to previous reports, and an unemployment rate at the lowest level since 1963, may indicate that the economy is not quite as near recession as previously surmised. And with inflation still rising, albeit slightly less fast than expected, the outlook remains cloudy.
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FeaturesA flawed EU crypto regulatory framework
The EU will soon have a specific regulatory framework for crypto currencies and markets. Under proposals soon to be adopted, only crypto coins authorised in the EU will be allowed to be offered to investors. But crypto assets and exchanges will have a very light supervisory regime, much less than what is in place for financial instruments and exchanges. This raises the question about the rationale for distinct rules. This question is even more acute in the context of the big decline in the crypto markets over the past weeks.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: inflation battle in full swing
As we reach the midpoint of the year, there is little sign that the second half of 2022 will be any less turbulent than the first. The conflict in Ukraine slogs on – a destructive war of attrition, pain and fear. The repercussions are huge, global and unpredictable, be they surging energy prices or impending, but acute, shortages of basic foodstuffs, or of semi-conductors, so vital to 21st century life.
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FeaturesYen’s swift dive surprises market
For several decades, the Japanese yen has not been in the limelight too often. However, earlier this year it became headline news as the currency began to depreciate rapidly against the US dollar. Although investors were not overly surprised that the yen would weaken, the speed of its decline was certainly startling. Over the course of about 15 months, between the start of 2021 to early April 2022, the yen has lost about 25% of its value against the dollar, with nearly half the move occurring in that final month.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: disappearing safe havens
Risk markets have been having a torrid time of late. ‘Risk-free’ government bond markets are not providing any safe havens in these storms, with curves steepening and considerable volatility in longer rates.
