IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2022
In general, political risk remained the same, except in the UK. The Russian offensive against Ukrainian civil infrastructure is useless. If it should succeed, Russia has no means to exploit it militarily. Ukraine is set to recover Kherson. In the EU, France is trying to cope with a vicious strike that blocks petrol deliveries, but its side effect is a push towards hybrid and non-petrol cars. Japan is worried over implicit North Korean nuclear threats. In the UK political risk has increased fast with a crisis caused by government tax plans that has sapped trust on several levels. The data indicate that analysts believe that the wave of interest rate increases is near (if not over) its top and that bonds are now becoming more attractive than equities for the first time in many years.
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IPE covers a good variety of very current and relevant topics. It is good to read the high-level, independent and objective perspectives from pension funds in other European countries; many of them are dealing with the same issues as we are, so it is interesting to learn from their experiences, especially when they are ahead of where we are on the curve.
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