With the US entering a new phase next year under Donald Trump’s second presidency, European leaders face tough challenges and will have balancing acts to master if peace and prosperity are to prevail on the continent, a prominent academic and former Swedish prime minister told a conference in Prague this week.
Opening the IPE Conference & Awards 2024 event, Fredrik Reinfeldt, prime minister of Sweden between 2006 and 2014, gave a keynote speech on the rise of “strong-man” political leadership and its implications for Europe, while Michal Smetana, associate professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, and director of the Peace Research Center Prague, told delegates about his analysis of what the new US presidential phase might mean – particularly in regard to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Smetana said: “It is very clear that we are entering overall a period of great uncertainty with a US administration that simply doesn’t play by the rules. And I cannot say at this point whether this is a good or a bad thing.
He said that sometimes, when a situation was very complex, it made sense to try something new, but added that the outcome could nevertheless still be bad.
“One thing I can claim I am certain of – what will happen next year in Ukraine will be critically important,” said Smetana.
“It will not be just an issue of the war in Ukraine itself, but it will be critical for the future of the European security however it be negotiated – and this will be critical for our understanding of what will happen when it comes to security arrangements in Europe for years or even decades to come,” the associate professor said.
“And I can very much hope that US and European leaders are up to this task,” he said, to conclude his speech.
Reinfeldt had ended his speech – which covered topics such as the history of swings between autocracy and democracy in Europe and the development of “strong-man” regimes — by denying Europe was doomed by the US political shift.
“The odd thing is that all this transformation is starting with strong man and the political life, but alongside that, everything that was built in to make the economy work better is still working,” he said.
“At the same time the technological and economic transformations are linked to sustainability, and [there is] a will to meet all the demands of still-rising middle class globally,” Reinfeldt said, but added that the problem was now – could a thriving economy and autocracy live side by side?
“So what will happen in the world? Well, it’s a balancing act,” he said.
“I find myself a little bit confused that now it’s the political sector that’s the problem – and the markets, the industries, the thriving entrepreneurs is more our hope for keeping the world open,” the former prime minister told delegates.
What was needed was a totally new discussion on ESG and geopolitics, he said, adding that one had to take great care not to act on what an autocratic leader wanted to do.
“It’s happening quickly, and therefore it’s a much tougher world to orient yourself into. But it doesn’t mean we should be afraid and stop,” he said.
“In the nineties, you should be global, now you should be local, the more local the better. I think the way to do it going forward is a kind of balancing act in between,” Reinfeldt said.
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