Peter Kraneveld
Comments - Page 2
Cutting taxes + lowering the retirement age + increasing benefits + staying in the euro zone = no solution. Something will have to give. Leaving the euro zone is the favourite option in the article. However, too many voters remember the times when Italy could not produce small coins and plastic buttons and candy were used as money, when getting a mortgage was impractical because of crazy interest rates because of high inflation, when a banker was found swinging by the neck from a bridge. Leaving the euro zone would be against the wishes of the voters and politically suicidal. Doing nothing effective on taxes and retirement is far easier. That doesn't mean leaving the euro zone can't happen. Just that it is irrational and not likely to happen.
Excellent reporting! Thank you. I don't see the contradiction between the behavioural science conclusions and the neuro-scientific conclusions as worrisome. On the contrary. Humans are psycho-somatic animals. I wouldn't be surprised if further research can marry the two by showing that environment (e.g. stress) determines whether behavioural or somatic impulses have the upper hand. That could lead to real insights into when humans should be corrected by machines and vice versa. At last, quantitative and qualitative investing could be united...
The missing option is to move the pension scheme to Belgium. Supervision there is not rule-based but risk-based, so their argument that the young population requires a different reaction would get a proper hearing.
If you pour in a considerable amount of money and funding levels remain unchanged or get worse there is only one conclusion possible: your calculation method is faulty. Reality should be more important than model assumptions.
While Ambachtsheer makes some valid points, he overlooks a strong point against his action: the current government is led by a right-wing party (VVD) that has a long tradition of destroying pension capital for the sake of political dogma. The party knows about supply and demand, but not about market failure. It likes high finance, but dogmatically abhors social security. It has no knowledge of people's wishes to build up a good pension and inability to do so if left to their own devices. That probably sounds more normal in Canadian ears, but it is unbalanced in the long run, creating reforms that have to be repaired soon again.
Just to illustrate how superficial pension thinking is: IPE recently reported that at least one politician wants to reserve pension questions for the ministry of finance alone, shoving the ministry of social affairs away from decision making. If pensions are not a social service, why not privatise the sector and accept the ensuing poverty among the elderly as normal and unavoidable? In this climate and with such leaders, doing nothing is better than reform.What is surprising is the implicit assumption that this is news. In fact, we have known at least since Sweden went this route that "freedom of investment choice" diminishes pensions because a large majority of people is not equipped or willing to make such choices. However, there are enough people around who are willing to deny the facts for the sake of maintaining their political dogma.
Anyone who states that quarterly reporting increases efficiency does not understand the first thing about finance in general and pension investments in particular. While part of the EU administration tries to promote long-term investing, EIOPA tries to hamper it. This is more prime evidence that EIOPA is unfit to cover pension funds. They should be covered be a separate body.
All this when reports from the Netherlands indicate a startling rise in invalidity benefits for people who did hard physical work within a few years of the recently increased official retirement age. This evidence says that a significant part of the money saved has to be spent again on another social programme. Rather than a one-size-fits-all retirement age, it is better to have a flexible retirement age with actuarially neutral discounts for early retirement. That way, workers who know they may well have to retire early can at least save a little extra in the third pillar and retire when they feel they have to, not when the state decides they have to.
The fear is justified. Only Ireland remains as a member-state with comparable pension interests. There are two decision procedures in the EU. Qualified majority and unanimity. Financial matters require a qualified majority. The Netherlands and Ireland cannot block unholy initiatives such as the financial transaction tax by themselves. Social matters need unanimity, but Brussels' practice is that isolated diplomats "seek new instructions". With Britain out, the road is open for a simple-minded destruction of the Dutch and Irish pension system by member-states who think differently.
The said, Brexit is unavoidable. The Dutch should construct a new alliance. France looks obvious, but will the twain ever meet?It would be simple to see if this is serious or not: require that for every item reported to the ECB, a similar item reported to national authorities must be dropped. If that cannot be agreed, this is just bureaucratic warfare, to be financed by pension funds and ultimately, beneficiaries of pension funds.
It seems pretty obvious to me that Brexit was to a large degree decided on exactly the same xenophobia as Trump's election. That alone will preclude a shift of immigration from the US to the UK. There are similar sentiments in other European countries, but the crucial difference is that in those countries, xenophobia is not a government policy, as it is today in the US and the UK.
That said, it would be in everyone's interest if developing countries would develop and economic fugitives would stay home - something most of them would probably prefer. This is easily done. If developed countries would just give up protectionist trade policies, especially in the field of agriculture, the problem would be marginalised. According to the OECD, food prices consist of around 50% subsidies in the US, 65% in the EU and 85% in Japan. All this money protects the small and diminishing domestic agri sector and its powerful lobby machine. Therefore, the easy solution is politically impossible and the only other option is immigration. OECD countries can keep out developing countries' goods or developing countries' people, but not both.The article was evidently written some time ago. Meanwhile, Trump minions proposed a 20% import tax on goods from Mexico and promised Boris Johnson a trade deal. These developments show how the US administration is unaware of the WTO rules it has subjected itself to: it cannot make a bilateral trade deal under the WTO's MFN clause. It cannot institute an import tax, unless there are circumstances clearly not present, such as exports subsidies, retaliation against unfair trade measures or a temporary economic emergency. If Trump is so cavalier about other international trade deals, his ignorance of the WTO system may easily lead to more drastic action that would have disastrous consequences for the world economy.
It should not amaze that the OECD is unable to mention government policy as a reason for the many closures. At least in the Netherlands, I think this is the major reason, not only for the consolidation, but also for departures. This makes life easier for officials, but it is not necessarily in the interest of the beneficiaries.
The Dutch supervisor always demands more money from pension funds, while making life increasingly difficult for smaller funds with narrow-minded, inflexible and costly reporting (hence solvency) requirements, controversial meddling in governance and obvious efforts to squeeze out pension fund administrators who dare to disagree with them. No wonder OECD is scared...“Many pension schemes undertaking actuarial valuations at the June or September quarter ends are likely to show stressed positions – with higher deficits despite reasonable asset growth,”
This sums up the problem quite nicely. The correlation between pension funds' ability to pay pensions and current interest rate is low or may even be slightly negative, yet interest rates dominate solvency calculations. What is needed is not so much leniency, but far better and more realistic solvency calculation models. Current models work against financial policy and are pro-cyclical. Why should financial authorities take them seriously?First, I think Juncker - who is not exactly the world's greatest diplomat - is reacting to the appointment of Johnson as the British negotiator. In that sense, it is not Juncker but May who played hardball.
Second, I expect the member-states and in particular Germany as well as the European parliament will be unhappy with Barnier. There is a feeling that the UK will be punished financially and economically hard enough already to discourage others. Though they are unlikely to stop his nomination (the negotiations with the UK are within the competence of the European Commission and they have the most knowledge of EU law), the member-states will undermine his power, possibly by a second-in-command who is beholden to the Council or the EU parliament.
What remains is that Johnson and Barnier are steps on the road to an unnecessary minimal agreement between the UK and the EU.Agreed with the article, but with two important remarks. First, there has been a discussion of a Europe with two speeds. Unfortunately, it was framed in terms of "second rate members", who refuse political integration. If the negativism can be avoided, it would contribute to the discussion.
Second, the immigration issue is connected to the referendum in the sense that it influenced people's vote, even if the argument is at best irrational. What's missing here is a distinction between economic refugees and political refugees. People who routinely applaud those who gave shelter to the persecuted of the second world war and routinely condemn sending a ship full of jews away from the US or a ship full of persecuted Indians away from Canada cannot shy away from sheltering - at much less risk - today's political refugees with no better excuse than that they lower wages without looking morally broke.
Economic refugees are another story altogether. Their problem is basically domestic and often driven by a sociopath dictator, interested only in his personal wealth. Yet, it does have an international angle: trade protectionism. You can keep out their (agricultural) products or you can keep out their people, but you cannot keep out both. EU, take heed.Don't they think Mr. Trump is a populist and don't they know that at least 40% of the US population plans to vote for him? That's a whole lot more than what the ultra-right gets in European countries...
It is wrong to blame the ECB for Dutch pension fund woes. The ECB is doing what it thinks right to get EU economic growth going. The real issue is the Dutch supervisor, not recognising that the ECB measures are by definition temporary and not adjusting the FTK model, but sticking rigidly to bureaucratic rules when they don't make sense.
- Previous Page
- 1
- 2
- Next Page
Commented on: 9 June 2018
Quitaly? How Italy’s new leaders could redefine European politics