All articles by Peter Kraneveld
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FeaturesAsset allocation: hard to pick short-term winners
IPE’s latest manager expectations survey finds high net sentiment across most main asset classes as allocators weigh the Trump trade
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2024
Bond expectations falling, equity mostly flat
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2024
Donald Trump has profited from climate change, which he believes unimportant, as this year’s hurricane season has so far seen more storms over a wider area.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2024
In generic US polls, Democrats beat Republicans, with a small but increasing margin, signalling an opportunity for reforms if Kamala Harris wins and a continuation of a divided and blocked Congress if Donald Trump wins.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - September 2024
Kamala Harris’ candidacy has turned the political mood in the US. The two candidates are very close together in the polls but while Trump’s score is stable – except for a worsening favourability – Harris’ statistics all show a positive trend.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - July 2024
Both US presidential candidates are slowly losing popularity, while staying very close in the polls. Trump seems to have more trouble than Biden getting through to the undecided. Trump’s legal troubles may yet hinder his candidacy, in particular among independents.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - August 2024
Joe Biden’s weakness was a lucky stroke for Donald Trump, who has shown similar symptoms for years. It remains to be seen what effect Kamala Harris has on the polls. Trump and his chosen VP are both proponents of weakening the USD.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - June 2024
Trump and Biden are both losing to undecided voters, a group that is now unusually large and may be sensitive to Trump’s legal troubles. Biden’s approval rate is below his score in presidential polls, while Trump’s score is the same in presidential polls and those measuring voters’ opinion of him. In the UK, the Conservatives took another drubbing in the local elections.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - May 2024
EU parliamentary elections are approaching fast. Current polls predict a shift to the right, with the current centrist parties remaining dominant and the extremist right overtaking the Eurosceptics. US President Donald Trump is still liable to be convicted in a criminal case, but his poll figures are rising.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - April 2024
The shadow of the US presidential elections is longer than normal because Trump is under several legal clouds. He could still get barred from participating but that seems unlikely. He does have a liquidity problem, a self-destructive streak, a mercurial character and no credible alternative waiting in the wings, though.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - March 2024
Climate change is coming to a trend break as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2024
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2024
It is safe to predict that 2024 will be a year of desperate campaigning. Political surprises in the US and UK are possible and, this time, they do make a difference to markets
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2023
IPE’s monthly poll of market sentiment, asking 50 asset managers about their six to 12-month views on regional equities, global bonds and currency pairs
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - October 2023
The Russian war in the Ukraine is still stalling, with the prelude of the US elections coming closer. Trump’s self-destructive utterings keep his followers unmoved but do nothing to convince independents.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: September 2023
US officials are talking up the Ukrainian advance towards Melitopol, a sign that all is not well. Contrary to expectations, the biggest problem is not the Russian air force, but land mines. Trump’s legal problems are as worrisome as his inexplicable lead among Republicans. US abstinence in the struggle against climate change is a potential cause for a major trade war as the EU realises it must expand its regulations on importing ‘dirty’ products to prevent a free rider problem undermining its climate efforts. In the UK, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives remains crushing, making it difficult to claim the government has a popular mandate.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: July 2023
The war in Ukraine is starting to look like a stalemate. This would be in Russia’s favour. Delivery to Ukraine of more of the tanks promised or fighters to contest Russian air control might lead to a breakthrough, but is unlikely to happen in the summer. In the US, Trump looks like a leading but weak candidate for the Republicans, even against a Democrat as unpopular as Biden. Legal pushbacks against the fight to prevent permanent climate change, notably in Texas, have the potential to cause a trade war with the EU. They illustrate how European and North American values are slowly drifting apart.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: August 2023
Politics is on hold until September. Normally, markets do not care and analysts reduce their activity. A political crisis in the Netherlands shows the danger. There are warnings from all sides that climate measures are ever more urgently needed. Markets need a clearer view of which products govern- ments will support with market-shaping measures and when, especially in the face of a faltering pace towards climate goals. Early signs of problems include a lack of capital for innovative start-ups and the increasingly loud voices of climate change deniers.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: June 2023
Continued loud bickering between the Wagner Group and the Russian army is protecting Putin from both, worsening the outlook for peace, while there are multiple signs that military supplies are approaching exhaustion. The coalition supporting Ukraine is stronger than ever, showing increasing willingness to provide military aircraft. Yet the offensive expected in February has not started. In the US, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is damaging his position with an unproductive row with Disney, while Trump has moved closer to a prison term. Gas consumption in the EU is falling faster than expected, due to efficiencies like heat pumps, changeover to electricity and solar panels. Macron scored nicely by sponsoring the participation of Zelensky at the Hiroshima G7; Sunak failed to centre political attention on China.
