All articles by Peter Kraneveld – Page 2
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator May 2023
Russian air superiority over Ukraine is coming to an end due to lack of equipment. Destroying civilian targets is counterproductive and consumes ammunition. Bakhmut is eating into Russian resources, while Ukraine is being re-armed. History teaches that better technology, rather than numerical superiority, wins wars. But even a lopsided Ukrainian win would not automatically mean peace.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator April 2023
With new, superior equipment, the Ukrainian military is set to start an offensive soon. Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, is jockeying to become Russia’s next kleptocrat on the back of the Russian army. Donald Trump’s candidacy is increasingly beleaguered by defeats in court. The trade agreement on Northern Ireland between the EU and the UK is a significant boon for both as well as for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, not because the trade flows are so important but because the issue blocked co-operation in many other fields. While the winter has been mild and beneficial, there are early signs of a dry spring, quite possible in view of climate change setting in. If that materialises, harvests, therefore food prices, will be affected in autumn.
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Opinion PiecesViewpoint: The power of prioritisation
When you can’t decide on return and risk, you think of the window of light
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator March 2023
The next Ukrainian offensive will be in April at the earliest, as modern tanks will have arrived by then. US Republican pushback of ESG and climate-related investments are a new bone of contention in relations with the EU, already strained by the Trump presidency, and a bad sign for US-EU co-operation on China policy, an issue Japan seems to be ducking successfully. Aided by a soft winter, EU energy concerns have become quite manageable.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: February 2023
Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians are hampered by efficient air defence. With weapons for the Ukrainian military on the way, a new offensive seems imminent. US President Joe Biden’s troubles over classified documents are a relief for Republicans. The threat of a US-EU trade conflict over China is growing as both sides retreat into nationalistic behaviour. In the UK, Conservatives are under threat of predicted historic losses, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak so far has done nothing to repair relations with the EU.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2023
Better air defence and the ground freezing over are steadily improving the outlook for Ukraine’s forces, now locked in stalemate. A series of blunders haunts US Republicans in general and Trump in particular. If Biden’s stimulus package is enacted, it will counteract Fed policy, possibly prolonging the series of interest rate increases. The EU seems to have bought too much gas. It has agreed to take border measures against some products from climate change laggard countries.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: December 2022
The Ukrainian offensives look to have petered out and a new initiative will be needed to maintain morale. The US government is once again gridlocked and another debt ceiling fight is likely. The EU seems ready even for a harsh winter, but there are signs of war fatigue. In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has apparently learned from the Liz Truss debacle, quickly making the necessary political U-turns, in particular on climate change. Expectations for the COP27 meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh were low. Analyst views indicate increasing belief that the wave of interest rate increases is receding.
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Features
IPE Quest Expectations Indicator - November 2022
In general, political risk remained the same, except in the UK. The Russian offensive against Ukrainian civil infrastructure is useless. If it should succeed, Russia has no means to exploit it militarily. Ukraine is set to recover Kherson. In the EU, France is trying to cope with a vicious strike that blocks petrol deliveries, but its side effect is a push towards hybrid and non-petrol cars. Japan is worried over implicit North Korean nuclear threats. In the UK political risk has increased fast with a crisis caused by government tax plans that has sapped trust on several levels. The data indicate that analysts believe that the wave of interest rate increases is near (if not over) its top and that bonds are now becoming more attractive than equities for the first time in many years.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: monthly commentary
Political risk has decreased. An attack in the north-east of Ukraine took the Russian army by surprise but did not cause collateral damage in Russia. Russians’ resistance to the war is mounting but far from a critical level. It looks like the EU will survive the winter without major energy disruption and caps on energy prices are falling into place.
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FeaturesIPE-Quest Expectations Indicator commentary August 2022
The war in Ukraine has reached stalemate. Neither party is capable of a surprise win, but time works against Russia. Can Zelensky keep the army motivated to continue? A long, hot European summer
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FeaturesIPE-Quest Expectations Indicator commentary June 2022
The longer Russia refuses to make concessions, the more it loses, both in territory and in ‘face’. The Russian army has suffered even more loss of face than the Russian government. Analysts believe Europe and the UK now run the most risk. Perhaps, but in a post-war environment, they stand to gain most from reconstruction works in the Ukraine as well as the energy transition speeding up at home.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator commentary May 2022
Ukraine is slowly gaining the upper hand, while Russia is still unwilling to make concessions. Putin is trying to play his nuclear card, a dangerous move, making himself the major obstacle to stopping the appalling Russian losses in people and equipment. Meanwhile, Zelensky lost points by creating an issue with Germany when he can’t afford to lose points.
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Opinion PiecesViewpoint: Post-war Ukraine
Post-war Ukraine offers threats and opportunities. Peter Kraneveld says it will pay to keep an eye on some key factors
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Features
IPE Quest Expectations Indicator commentary April 2022
With a threat of nuclear war looming, Russia increasingly looking exhausted and desperate but unwilling to make concessions and a Russian default threatening, the world is again as dangerous as it was during the cold war. A default now cannot be compared with Russia’s de facto default in 1998.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator – March 2022
Political risk is back. Russian aggression towards Ukraine inserts considerable amounts of uncertainty. Asset owners will in general not suffer significant direct consequences for a well-diversified portfolio, but there are potential implications for energy prices that come at a time when inflation was already making a comeback and on top of unexpected military expenditure when budgets are already charged by COVID-19-related outlays
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - February 2022
Wait and see
Omicron surprised a world that thought COVID was almost over. Infections shot up in the EU, UK and US, reaching all-time highs, especially in France. However, while absolute levels remain high, the curves have turned and panic is abating. Death rates were little affected. -
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - January 2022
Being sure of opinions
With all eyes on inflation, political risk is not expressed in market sentiment, perhaps with the exception of the UK. -
FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator - December 2021
IPE’s sentiment statistics for 2021 are highly unusual. First, they were moving closely together, with one exception only – confidence in Japanese bonds remained an outlier throughout the year, with the gap with other areas increasing steadily.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator: November 2021
In Brazil, India and Japan, figures for new COVID-19 infections are low and descending. In the EU, they are low and rising, in particular in the former eastern bloc countries and areas. The US curve is going down fast from a high level. The statistics for Russia and in particular the UK are worrisome to bad. These two countries have relied on vector-based vaccines that are, on average, less effective.
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